New weekly data shows Austin’s residential housing market tightening more than most industry reports suggest, challenging the widely held view of ongoing oversupply. According to Jen Berbas, Founder and Team Lead at Berbas Group, there are now 9% fewer homes for sale in central Austin compared to the same week last year, and 7% more homes under contract on a rolling 30-day basis. These trends are not yet visible in standard monthly reports, creating a gap between agents who work with up-to-date information and those who rely on lagging data.
Berbas says that within 12 miles of downtown, the number of homes on the market has dropped while contract activity has increased. “We have 9% fewer homes on the market than we did this time last year, and we have 7% more homes under contract on a 30-day rolling basis,” she explains. This tightening is making conditions more competitive for buyers, a reality not yet reflected in most market coverage.
The gap between weekly and monthly data raises concerns that conventional reporting methods are missing key turning points, leaving buyers and sellers with outdated information that could affect pricing and negotiation strategies.
Monthly Reports Miss Market Shifts
Berbas attributes her team’s information advantage to the frequency of data collection. Standard monthly reports from local realtor boards summarize sales that are already three weeks old. Weekly tracking provides a real-time snapshot of inventory and contract activity.
“When you wait for the Board of Realtors data that comes out monthly, three of the four weeks it’s sale data,” Berbas says. “Having it weekly gives our sellers an inclination of whether they can push a price or be more conservative.”
This real-time data is influencing pricing advice. Berbas now advises sellers to price slightly higher than a few months ago, even as monthly reports still show elevated inventory. For buyers, the result is more frequent multiple-offer situations, especially for single-family homes under $2 million in central Austin.
Based on Berbas Group’s transaction experience, Berbas estimates that 10% to 20% of central Austin single-family homes under $2 million are now attracting multiple offers — a trend she says has not gained wide attention. Buyers who believe they are still in the buyer’s market of 2023 or early 2024 are often surprised by increased competition.
Central Austin Outpaces Metro Data
The inventory squeeze is more pronounced in central Austin than in the broader metro area. Central Austin, defined as single-family homes within a 12-mile radius of downtown, now has only three months of inventory, compared with four months for the entire Austin metro area. This difference highlights how citywide data can mask significant neighborhood-level trends.
“In the central city, single-family homes, we only have three months of inventory, whereas the broader Austin MSA shows four months of inventory,” Berbas says. She describes this as a “pretty big disconnect.”
Some neighborhoods are even tighter. In Hyde Park, Barton Hills, Zilker, and similar areas, homes of around 2,500 square feet are especially scarce. Buyers in these neighborhoods need to act quickly or risk missing out. In Hyde Park, Berbas Group has observed properties selling above the most recent MLS comparable sale, which Berbas attributes to tightening supply of desirable homes in established neighborhoods.
Using citywide statistics for pricing or negotiating carries risk. A buyer relying on the metro-wide four-month inventory figure may underestimate competition in central neighborhoods. A seller in a higher-inventory area could overprice based on tighter central city data.
To address this, Berbas Group tracks inventory and pending contracts weekly by neighborhood, enabling near-real-time adjustments to pricing strategy. This approach stems from Berbas’s background as a Chicago floor trader. She treats information speed as a direct advantage in negotiations.
Weekly Data Drives Pricing Strategy
Most residential real estate agents still rely on monthly MLS reports, but Berbas uses a finance-driven approach uncommon in the industry. Early in her career, she worked as a floor trader and later in credit default swap pricing — experiences that shape her team’s analytics approach today.
Her team uses internally developed tracking tools to monitor inventory, pending contracts, and lease comparisons on a rolling basis. This data helps guide both seller pricing and buyer expectations, particularly regarding the likelihood of multiple offers and the pace of sales.
For sellers, weekly data signals whether to price more aggressively or conservatively. For buyers, it clarifies how quickly they need to act when a suitable property appears.
Berbas believes that as software and AI tools become more accessible, more agents will adopt high-frequency data collection. “Advances in software and AI have made it possible for non-programmers to build custom analytics tools that would have required significant investment just a few years ago,” she notes. If weekly data adoption becomes widespread, the current competitive edge will shrink. For now, the divide between those using high-frequency data and those relying on monthly reports creates real differences in market knowledge and transaction outcomes.
Rethinking Residential Market Reporting
These developments suggest that traditional monthly reporting may not be sufficient to capture real-time market shifts, especially in cities like Austin, TX, where neighborhood dynamics differ sharply. It remains uncertain whether local realtor boards and data providers will adopt higher-frequency reporting.
However, as more practitioners experience the limitations of monthly data, demand for more timely information is likely to grow. For buyers and sellers, the lesson is clear: relying on outdated reports can mean missed opportunities or mispriced listings. As Austin’s market continues to tighten, those with access to current, granular data will be best positioned to navigate the changing landscape.
